Creating Player Projections For NFL Player Props

Unabated Staff
Modeling
Props
Simulator
September 27, 2022

In this episode, T is tying together the data gathering, bootstrapping, and weighting that we did in the first two episodes. He’ll be building a basic player projection for Tight End receiving that takes into account the target data and the opponent. Then he’ll be using the Unabated NFL Player Prop Simulator to simulate out his projection 10,000 times. You can use this information to improve on this model and create profitable projections to use on your own.

 

Key Concepts

  • Factoring in data beyond just performance averages
  • Understanding the value of not only weighted mean, but weighted standard deviation
  • Using the Unabated tools to simulate your projection