Unabated NBA is back for the 2025-26 season. We’re excited to take on another season putting together razor-sharp player prop projections, dynamic conditional projections and breaking player news.
There were some questions that came up over and over again last year about the service, and how to approach it.
This guide, by Unabated Managing Director and head of the Unabated NBA team, Justin Phan, should answer most of those questions and help you establish a framework for how to use the projections in your betting.
And if you haven’t yet signed up for Unabated NBA, add it to your Unabated membership and get ready to grind another season on the court.
Projections Release
We’ll release projections for every game this season, regardless of the start time. Release time on weekdays will generally be 4 p.m. ET for Concierge members getting the early release and 4:30 p.m. ET for Premium and Props+ members on the standard release.
On days with earlier games, projections will be released 75 minutes before the first game starts for the early release and 60 minutes out for the standard release. Projection release times may be staggered on those days with some games released at an earlier time and other games released at a later time.
All times and details will be announced each morning in the #nba-proj-release Discord channel.
News and Injuries
Before betting into edges, it’s important to be aware of all the news and injury information on a given slate. This will give you the context you need.
You’ll understand how likely it is a projection could change based on news, or if there’s fragility or volatility attached to a projection.
We generally don’t recommend betting into situations where significant news is pending unless we communicate a clear lean on a player’s status or potential edge.
Here’s how to put yourself in the best position to take advantage of news and injuries:
- Stay glued to #nba-news-alerts: There is no better source to stay up-to-the-second with news and information. You’ll find industry-leading injury and lineup news here. We’ll send only relevant alerts, so you don’t get inundated with the status of fringe rotation players or unactionable next-day updates. You’ll also get crucial tidbits from shootaround and media availability to help you get ahead of the news. This helps power our proprietary percent-play metric that tells you the likelihood that each key player will play, based on the latest information and our extensive historical injury database.
- Use our conditional projections: We launched these in our inaugural season, and they were very helpful in being able to quantify the impact of an injury on their teammates’ projections. We identify key players on each slate, and you can toggle between that team’s projections with that key player marked in or out. We support up to two key players per team, so if Luka Doncic and LeBron James are both questionable on a given night, you can toggle between four different sets of Lakers projections to cover every scenario.
- Read our daily slate previews in #nba-proj-release: We post daily slate previews shortly before projections release each day. These include injury news and projected lineups for every team. More importantly, we provide much-needed context to our projections. We identify spots where we have higher conviction, and others where there’s more uncertainty and fragility. We identify potential lineup or rotation changes and cover how that would affect a team’s projections, should they happen.
- Find us in #nba-alpha: Our team is available around the clock to answer your questions and talk through any edges or injury/news situations.
Vetting Edges
We are not, and have no interest in being, a picks service.
Our goal is to release the most accurate projections on the market and provide you with the tools you need to become a profitable bettor. We hope you use these projections to become self-sufficient, without relying on being fed picks. It is a far more sustainable approach for everyone involved.
With that said, here are a few general guidelines for vetting edges and determining which ones to bet:
- Our recommended threshold for potential bets are edges in the Props Simulator of 5% or higher. It’s important to remember that not all edges are equal. There may may be too much volatility around a situation because of injury or lineup uncertainty. There are also some rotations we have higher confidence projecting that have less fragility, and others where there are a wider range of outcomes (see: Kerr, Steve). We’ll identify these in our slate previews and in the alpha chat.
- Smaller lines (i.e. O/U 1.5 assists) are generally more volatile. Ancillary stats such as threes made, steals, blocks, and turnovers are particularly volatile in nature. A 10% edge on a points line should not be treated the same as a 10% edge on a threes-made line.
- Edges are best at release. The further out from release time, the less sharp edges may be. Typically, we don’t recommend betting into edges far past release unless it’s a new market or if reacting to news. This is especially true with regards to exchange markets where there may be adverse selection at play.
- Unders generally perform better than overs, and the performances of our edges bear that out. There are considerably more paths for a player to hit their under than over — foul trouble, game flow and injury. Player props are right-skewed as the mean is typically higher (to the right of a bell curve) than the median. But that affects the tail events; the thickest part of the bell curve sits to the left of the mean and, probability wise, you’re going to win more bets betting on unders more frequently.
