Captain Jack Andrews explains why buying picks usually falls short after fees and line movement, and how tout releases can sometimes reveal value on the other side. He shows how tracking market reactions and comparing independent fair prices can turn those moves into useful information.
Back to VideosShould you ever buy picks from a tout? In 99% of cases, the answer is no. But what about that 1%? Sometimes pick sellers create an opportunity on the other side of their own bet. The hard part is knowing when it happens. Today, I'm going to look at all the usual reasons that buying picks are a bad deal for bettors.
But I'm also going to show you where they can fit into your approach as useful signal. Because a winning record doesn't mean you're going to make money, and a service that moves lines doesn't mean you should always bet against it. Let me show you what makes a service actually worth paying for. Touts, shills, tipsters, pick sellers, whatever you want to call them. If you're here, there's already a pretty good chance you know what they are, and you've got a pretty strong hunch that they're not on the level. The fact that they're out there acting like carnival barkers might be annoying enough to you already, even if you don't know what the problem is.
But why exactly are touts something that should usually be avoided? The question everyone should ask themselves off the bat is obvious.
If they're good enough to beat the market, why sell picks instead of betting them? For plenty of touts, that question tells you everything you need to know. They're selling junk picks that could never beat the market on their best days. Or worse, they're running hustles as old as time to make it look like they're crushers, when in reality, they're throwing darts. And not even good darts. The 3:00 a.m. at the bar after six pitchers kind of darts.
But some legitimate bettors sell picks because they're limited, or because subscriptions provide steadier income than betting. Let's give them the benefit of the doubt for now. Even if they're sharp and honest, can you make money following them?
Like when they publish their record, are you getting an accurate picture? Are they documented and graded fairly against available numbers? Do they use third-party tracking sites like Pikkit or betstamp? Even if they do, those are records that touts can and do fake. Some platforms allow bettors to hide entries after the fact. Or they give out a pick at one number which was bet long before their release or at an obscure app. Telling you to take Steelers plus three and a half when you can only bet them at plus three will make his record look great and your bankroll look disappointing in a 30 to 27 game.
Maybe you were fast enough to get the better number, but you can still lose money. If you're paying a thousand dollars a month for a package, do you end up further ahead than if you would be betting on your own? If they win 55% of the 40 plays that they give out in a month, that's a 22 and 18 record. If you get every bet down at minus 110 and bet a hundred dollar units, you've risked $4400 and you'll win $220 net, but spend a thousand dollars to get there. You're actually down $780. You wouldn't be profitable until your unit size hits $500.
But set all of that aside. What if the tout is operating in good faith and is actually sharp? say a college basketball service releases its picks at 1:00.
Within two minutes, a team they recommended at minus three is now laying six. If you're following the pick, you've got a problem. Now you've got a herd stampeding to get down on the same picks. If you have the reflexes of a 14-year-old e-sports god all hopped up on energy drinks and Adderall, maybe you've got a shot. but if you haven't seen your fast-twitch reflexes since kickball on the playground, you need another angle. Well, look at what just happened to the other side. You could only get plus three a minute ago.
Now, you can get plus six. Is that a good bet? One well-known operation was very well versed in West Coast hoops, but not as strong in other conferences. I knew if they put a number on Cal Poly, it might be accurate. But, if the same release in a week also targeted Towson University in Maryland, the books might overreact to that when the wave of money came crashing in. If they moved both lines three points, the Cal Poly move probably wasn't worth betting against. Both lines moved three points. That doesn't mean both moves deserved three points. Getting the other side of a Towson team that overshot the number could be very valuable. I call this going a bridge too far.
War movie buffs and Elliott Gould super fans, you know exactly what I'm talking about. Now, not every tout who moves markets is the same.
Some of them may simply have enough followers that the sheer volume moves prices. But, if you keep an eye on the market moves a service causes and track it alongside their results, we'll be able to figure out who's the real deal and who's just a podcast with audience members made up of college bros and sports talk radio listeners. Moving the markets by themselves may not mean a service is profitable, but it's always worth knowing why markets are moving so you can choose how to react to those markets in times where the move itself is far more valuable than the pick.
So, how do you know when a line has gone a bridge too far? Once you identify which releases move markets, track the moves every week and where the number closes. You'll start to find regular patterns in the moves. If it overshoots, then pulls back, you've identified an opportunity. You can also use your own independent pricing if you have a model or power ratings or some other method you use for handicapping. If you've determined that a team's fair price is minus 120 and the tout's release pushes them from minus 110 to minus 140, you've got a great opportunity to come back and grab a plus EV number on the other side at plus 125.
That's an excellent use of a tout service that can make it well worth your money to know when a release goes out and what the tout's target numbers are. It lets you get in front of the moves if you have an idea of where the market is headed. But, just like with buying picks for their own sake, the expected value you get out of it has to exceed the cost of the service itself. Used the right way, tout services are just another tool in your toolbox.
They don't replace your own critical thinking or approach to the game. They just enhance it. Too many people want a pick service to be an easy button. And there's a lot of bettors who would rather pay through the nose for their plays because it gives them someone else to blame when it goes poorly. That's not how sharp sports betting is done. For most, pick services are going to be a waste. They play too many games with their picks and they add so much cost to your bottom line, you can never get out from under the fees.
But, in the right hands, it can be valuable information to explain how markets behave. You're using them to form your own opinion instead of blindly following someone else's.
