Ten Ways To Win At Sports Betting With Unabated – Part I

Jack Andrews
Line Shopping
NFL Simulator
Props
Tools
September 24, 2022

Ways to win at sports betting

 I’ve been an Advantage Player for over 20 years – far longer than I ever expected to be. The secret to my success and longevity is simple: Always have many arrows in your quiver when you plan your attack. You always need to have multiple ways to find an edge or else you’re easily detected and defeated. Put more simply: Don’t be a one-trick pony. One of the best things about sports betting is that there are many ways to get an edge at it. You can be Top Down or Bottom Up. You can hustle promotions. Perhaps you are a prop bet specialist. Maybe you focus on in-game opportunities. Do you like a quantitative numbers-based approach or a qualitative information-based approach? Are you betting low amounts across multiple books, or focusing on high limits via VIP accounts? Literally, there are a lot of ways to win at sports betting.

Many people don’t realize that Unabated is more than just an odds screen, more than just some alternate line pricing tools. There are many different ways to win at sports betting using Unabated and in this two-part article, I’m going to highlight TEN ways for you to utilize Unabated. 

Some of these things require a Premium Subscription and we hope this article demonstrates just how valuable that purchase would be for you. However, some of these are free for you to use as well. This article isn’t just abstract hints, but rather a concise roadmap to profiting with our site. So get ready to load some new arrows as you plan your attack.

 

1. Top Down Using The Unabated Line

Perhaps the easiest way to profit using Unabated is to take a Top Down approach using a feature we call the Unabated Line. First, let’s discuss what Top Down is. The Top Down Method is when you identify a sharp line from a sportsbook and consider that your “source of truth.” You then pick off advantageous bets at other sportsbooks based on that source of truth. 

If your source of truth says that a football line should be -3 and you are able to find -2.5, then you would bet that -2.5 without having to do any tedious handicapping on the game. You’re trusting that your source of truth is sharper than you are.

One reason that it is safe to make that assumption is because a sharp market making sportsbook takes wagers from the sharpest bettors on the planet. Effectively, you are leveraging the hive mind of many sharp sports bettors who have shaped this line. All you need to do is to identify which sharp sportsbook you should follow as your source of truth.

However, there lies the problem for many bettors. Different sportsbooks have different strengths. One sportsbook may be sharpest in the industry on NBA & MLB, but another sportsbook may be sharper on NFL. Just like a sharp bettor has leagues they specialize in, a sharp sportsbook has trading teams that may specialize in a certain sport. We explored this in our Know Your Market Makers article.

 

Identifying The True Price With The Unabated Line

The Unabated LineUnabated solves this for you with the Unabated Line. We’ve polled some of the sharpest sports bettors in the world and have reached a weighted average of which sportsbooks are sharpest in each league on our odds screen. The Unabated Line represents a curated weighted consensus line of the sharpest sportsbooks. On top of that, we’ve made it vig-free. 

Let’s walk through an example of how you can use it. In the Eagles/Browns game, the Unabated Line is:
PHI -2.5 +102
CLE +2.5 -102

NFL Odds

You spot that Superbook if offering the Browns for +3 -110. Perhaps you are astute enough to know that +3 -110 is a good bet. If so, great. But how good of a bet is it? How much of an edge do you have? How much should you bet? 

Alt Line Calculation UnabatedThese are all answers you can find using our integrated tools. For instance, by using the Derivatives – Alternate Lines tool, you can find how strong that bet is at Superbook. Select that tool on the slideout and then click the Unabated Line of Cleveland +2.5 -102 line. It’s already vig-free so no need to remove the vig. Enter +3 as the alternate line you wish to price out. It informs you that the proper price should be -123 on that +3. 

How good is getting +3 -110 when it should be priced at -123? Another Unabated tool can help you answer that. The Closing Line Value calculator is a tool we have to quantify your closing line value (CLV) but it can also be used to tell you your EV. It’s pretty straightforward to use. In this case, it unveils a very nice +5.30% EV on this play.

Closing Line Value Calculation

A sportsbook has a 4.55% edge when they book games at -110. Living your life playing 5.3% edges will make you a very wealthy person. Many of our users hunt around our odds screen looking for situations like this to appear throughout the day. For more information on using this approach to profit with Unabated, check out our Step by Step Guide to Finding EV

 

The Unabated Line and Alternate Line Tool are Premium Subscriber features. The Closing Line Value Calculator is free for all users.

 

2. NFL Season Simulator For Futures Bets

From Top Down to Bottom Up. For many bettors, building a model that can make projections which beat the market is a holy grail. The reality is that the programming and data science skills required are typically beyond the reach of most bettors. We developed our NFL Season Simulator as a way to win at sports betting by bridging that skill gap. 

When it comes to projecting out odds to win a division, conference, or even a championship game, the best way to assign a probability to that event is via simulation. Similarly, the value of each win in Regular Season Win markets can best be reached via simulation. Our NFL Season Simulator works by taking your power ratings and applying variables that you control to a Monte Carlo simulation of the season 10,000 times over. 

If creating your own power ratings is outside your wheelhouse, no problem. We have importable power ratings from various sources including the Massey-Peabody ratings from Rufus Peabody and Cade Massey. 

 

An Example Of Using The NFL Simulator

We have videos and articles available in the simulator section to explain how to use the tool. Let’s use a set of power ratings I recently created by using a blend of both the Market Based Ratings, the Massey-Peabody injury impacts, and my own opinions. You can click on the image to see a full size version.

Unabated NFL Power Ratings

 

The result is a table which provides projected wins, odds to make the playoffs, and odds to win division, conference, and Super Bowl. However, the strength of these results is the ability to overlay them in our Futures Odds screen. 

Ways to Win at Sports Betting Line Shopping

You now have projections side-by-side with the actual lines in various sportsbooks. You can quickly line shop and find the best price. Don’t forget about Alt Win Totals which are readily available at many sportsbooks. That allows you to utilize the full range of the Win Distribution Table that your simulation has produced. 

NFL Season Win DistributionJAX Season Win Total

In this example, I’ve got the Jacksonville Jaguars over 6.5 wins as being a -114 true price, but I can currently grab o6.5 +115 at FanDuel. The Alt Win Totals also have some decent value as well. But perhaps the most advantageous part of the NFL Season Simulator is that Futures bets are not just preseason wagers. Sportsbooks update their Futures Odds throughout the season for all available markets including two-way markets like Make Playoffs or Season Wins. You can utilize the simulator throughout the season. We update the simulator and the importable power ratings weekly. 

 

The NFL Season Simulator is a Premium Subscriber feature.

 

3. NFL/NBA Player Prop Simulators

Speaking of simulators, we have another simulator product that really appeals to those of you who like trying to beat player props. It’s no secret that player props are beatable. Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) players transitioning to sports betting player props is making prop betting a viable way to win at sports betting. 

Player Prop ProjectionsMany aspirational bettors make a big mistake when they attempt to handicap player props. They create an average and then compare that against the betting lines. However, sportsbooks don’t hang the mean (average) because actually player performance is not evenly distributed. It is often skewed. For example, a wide receiver can go for 100+ yds on a good day, but is extremely unlikely to have less than 0 yds. This skews the average higher, but the line that would be the middle point where half of the results would be over and half would be under is called the median. That’s why generating a median result via simulation is a powerful tool to your betting arsenal.

The Unabated Player Prop simulator takes your projections and applies a bucket standard deviation per position to then simulate out the player performance 10,000 times. This results in output that you can use to bet on a player prop no matter what the posted line is. 

Unabated Player PropsWe output the entire distribution of results, both in table and graph form. You can also view both the mean and the median output as well. Want to place a bet on whether the player will have a 100+ yd game? We’ve got that too.

If you’re a bettor who enjoys playing NFL player props or NBA player props, you’ll find a lot of value in adding Unabated’s simulator to your process. There are some cool new features coming as well. More on that in Part II of this series. 

 

The NFL & NBA Player Prop Simulator is a Premium Subscriber feature.

 

4. Best Line/Synthetic Hold Columns

A recent addition to our Odds Screen is our Best Line and Synthetic Hold columns. Their purpose is to guide you to the best play you have available at your sportsbooks. While other odds screens have the ability to identify the best price on the screen, they don’t have the ability to adjust across spreads or totals.

For instance, one book may have -3 -120, while another book may have -3.5 +105. Which line is better? This could trip up other odds screens, but Unabated was built on logic like this. We know that -3.5 +105 is actually a better bet. 

This is also very useful information when markets are opening and different books have different opinions. Finding the best line quickly helps you make bets faster and sometimes speed is very important in fast-moving markets. 

 

Synthetic Hold And Sports Betting

Odds Screen ArbitrageComplementing the Best Line is our Synthetic Hold column. This was inspired by Ed Miller and Matthew Davidow’s landmark book, The Logic of Sports Betting. In it, they presented the idea of taking the best price on either side of a market to come up with the Synthetic Hold for that market. You want to bet into wagers with the lowest Synthetic Hold because that presents the least margin of error for the sportsbook to profit. The lower their edge, the more likelihood that you will stand a chance to profit.

On the Unabated Odds Screen, our Synthetic Hold column represents the EV for the sportsbook. A positive number indicates that the sportsbook expects to make this percentage of expected profit assuming balanced action on either side. When that Synthetic Hold is a negative number, we highlight it in green and it represents an edge for the bettor. An arbitrage opportunity. 

The addition of these two columns to our odds screen has created an extremely simple way for users to find positive EV situations and profit from them. It doesn’t get much easier than letting Unabated do all the monitoring and calculations. Furthermore, since we feature major sports markets on our Odds Screen, you can get down some healthy sized wagers on these opportunities.  

 

The Best Line & Synthetic Hold features are free for all users. A Premium Subscription unlocks more market making sportsbooks.

 

5. Unabated Community Discord

As professional bettors, we’ve seen the toxicity of sports betting message boards as well as Gambling Twitter. We understand that it is a tough crowd. The very nature of trying to make a profit in markets literally stacked against you by outsmarting and outwitting sportsbooks makes for a sometimes disgruntled demographic.

However, it doesn’t have to be that way. In the end, we are all very like-minded. While each of us are on a different part of our journey to become a sharp bettor, we’re still all looking to climb the same never-ending mountain. 

We’ve built a Discord community that, to the best of our ability, facilitates that positive energy. There’s no pick-selling or scam-touting. There’s not a thousand different channels where you’re not sure where useful information would be posted.

 

Interacting With Professional Bettors

Instead, you can interact with our proven professionals, Rufus Peabody, Peter Jennings, and especially me, Captain Jack. In fact, if you don’t see me active on our Discord, you may have stumbled upon some of the few hours I sleep, or else it’s time to do a wellness check.

It’s not just idle chit-chat either. Our Discord members have been very generous in sharing promotions and bonuses in the #promos channel. They also have great dialogue on the optimum way to play bonuses. Spotting situational edges and sharing them is another common Discord thread. Especially in our Premium channels.

Premium Subscribers get access to our premium channels where a lot of the Art of Sports Betting is discussed among the smaller private audience. Many subscribers have taken their game to the next level by learning of new and inventive ways to scale their betting operations thanks to our discussions in the Discord. 

If you haven’t checked out the Unabated Sports Betting Discord Community, it’s completely free and you can generate your invite here

 

The Unabated Community Discord is free for all users. Premium Subscribers get access to private Premium channels.

 

There Are Still More Ways To Win With Unabated

We’ve just scratched the surface of everything you can do at Unabated. I’ll be back with numbers 6 through 10 in a couple days. In the meantime, you can consider if Premium Membership is right for you and sign up here.